Forecasting sales for the month ahead is always tricky, but even more so in these COVID times.
Here’s an approach which may assist:
Look at Sales Revenue for July
Compare to May and June
Recall the events of July, anything significant which might be ‘one off’? e.g Lockdown?
Consider any upcoming events which might impact August sales
Will they have a positive or negative impact on Sales?
Review the marketing activity planned for August
What impact do you think they will have?
What lessons have been learned from the year so far?
Factor these into your forecast.
An excellent way to ‘stress test’ this forecast is to compare it against your Breakeven Point for August
To do this, follow these steps:
List all of the expenses coming up for August
Many of these will be known (rent, leases)
Others will need to be estimated
Include wages for yourself
Once you have a full list, gross this figure up by your Gross Margin (%).
This is your Sales Breakeven Point
This is your Sales Target which you MUST hit to cover your expenses
Anything less than this and you are losing money
Compare this against the forecast above and adjust if necessary
Both of these approaches will assist in your forecasting.
Let me know if you need a hand
Peter